I will be updating in the morning going into the NY session.
Overall EURUSD will struggle to move above 1.18 in short-term. The newly formed Italian government eased uncertainty end of last week, but there are still worries given the fiscal path that the new populist Italian government will put forward – namely going above the 3% deficit limit. I expect Italian-German yield spreads to stay wide.
Bias is to the upside today. Spot reference: 1.1690.
I am looking to fade 109.85/90 then 110.30s.
I think DXY is going lower to start the week. So is the US 10 YR yield. I do not think equities will have a strong open either. Trade tensions will intensify before appeased.
109.30 should provide support unless some risk-off flows start accelerating, then we are short that level.