The Fed keeps pulling out.

I was feeling sick last night.  It screwed my routine. Lacking sleep, I woke up usual at 5 a.m. but tired. Contrary to the customary I did not check FX prices. I did not open my Bloomberg app. I showered and got dressed up.  The markets were not in my mind.

 

I got to my desk late.  It was 8 am.  Retail sales were due in 30 minutes. I noticed $USDCAD was bid. EUR was offered. $USDJPY was bid a bit but was lagging the move. It must be the rates market. The US10YR rate was crossing 3%. That must be it. I wanted to buy USDCAD but when you are not prepared, it is tough to put on a position. It had already moved 50 pips. I thought it wasn’t going much higher.  I looked at my chart and decided to wait for a reversal. I was tempted out of boredom to hit sell, going in small. Get my feet wet, I thought. But oil started going down. It was not the right time. Don’t be early, I told myself. It kept getting bid. My system tells me to be long not short. I wait.

 

I am still perplexed why it is moving so much. Both EURUSD and USDCAD reached the second intraday resistance.  Let see how they act around here.  They both pause.  Then they continue to the same direction. There is no reversal yet.  I am reading some research, contacting some clients of mine and went for a coffee. I usually check quotes when away from the desk. I didn’t feel like. I was just looking at people in suits rushing to their offices. I got back to the desk. I started looking at a trader’s Instagram. I speak to my buddy who trades equities on the sell side.  The S&P is going lower.  Must be bond market or it was just running out of steam after being up 7 or 8 straight days.  No need to be precise, I am not trading equities. The big picture is fine.  I look at $USDCAD.  I will catch the reversal.  1.29 is just rich. NAFTA headlines seem positive although nothing concrete. 1.2920 gets tested twice. I get my first Heiken Ashi red bar. I short 1.2910. I am in. I am holding risk. I feel comfortable. Let’s see.

 

 

I go get lunch. I check prices.  1.2892. I am up 18 pips. It is going in my direction. The fix passed already. I think I can get more profits. Risk reward was attractive.  I eat my salad. I am on a diet. I need a better meal but I am committed. I get back to my desk.  $USDCAD is at 1.2870. I wait a bit.  1.2866. It’s stalling.  Let’s wait a bit.  1.2862. 1.2860. I am out.

No more risk.  Good reversal.  I missed the bigger trade (long USDCAD) but I made enough.  Let me finish some other business.  I think about the gym.  I don’t feel well.  Any excuse not to go. I take care of some emails.  The wife calls.  FX stops moving much.  Let’s go for a long walk, it’s nice outside. My day is done. Or Is it. I should have kept the short but I don’t want to hold risk overnight.

 

Kevin Muir has a good piece today in his blog The Macro Tourist, it explains to me the move is EUR and S&P. Read Here.